Alberta’s three by-elections held Monday – two in Edmonton and one in central Alberta – delivered few surprises, with a status quo outcome for each party in the Legislature. As MLAs break for the summer, the Legislature will have 47 UCP MLAS, 38 NDP, and 2 Independents.
The result in Edmonton-Strathcona was perhaps the least surprising of the by-elections. NDP leader Naheed Nenshi secured a decisive victory, winning the seat previously held by Rachel Notley. This marks Nenshi’s formal entry into the Legislative Assembly and gives the Official Opposition an opportunity to secure a much-needed public profile and shore up their support.
Meanwhile, in Edmonton-Ellerslie, the NDP narrowly held the seat with Gurtej Singh Brar, receiving 1,000 votes more than the UCP’s Naresh Bhardwaj. The 11-point dip in NDP support is certainly a cause for some concern within the NDP but low turnout, typical in by-elections, could be a factor.
In Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, the UCP’s Tara Sawyer easily retained the seat vacated by former Speaker Nathan Cooper. Notably, the separatist Republican Party of Alberta finished third gaining 17.6% of the vote finishing only 356 votes behind the NDP. At the same time the NDP’s candidate, Bev Toews, finished with 20% of the vote – the best result ever for that party in the constituency.
The result in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills is noteworthy for the overall separatist movement which is seeking to determine the future direction of the province. This is the only constituency to previously elect an independence focussed MLA when Gordon Kesler, running for the Western Canada Concept party, won the seat in the February 1982 by-election.
The lack of support for all of the Republican Party of Alberta candidates, especially in rural Alberta, does not bode well for the movement as it seeks to force a referendum on independence.