As the second week of the federal campaign wraps, the race is proving as complex as it is competitive.
Polling is tightening, but preferences are beginning to crystallize. Mark Carney is gaining traction as the preferred leader on healthcare, U.S. relations, and economic growth. However, voters remain sharply divided on fiscal strategy—split between deficit-driven investment in social programs and a return to balanced budgets.
Though sparing Canada from the harshest penalties, U.S President Trump’s tariffs reignited concerns about economic dependency on the U.S. Both Carney and Poilievre have now made foreign policy central to their campaigns—though their approaches couldn’t be more different.
Carney, leveraging his international economic experience, is pushing to decouple from the U.S. trade orbit, calling the historic trading relationship “over.” His focus is on building new alliances with Europe and beyond.
Poilievre, after a notable pivot, is taking a more pragmatic stance: renegotiating USMCA and leaning into defense and border cooperation to reinforce Canada’s relevance in Washington.
Candidates also made headlines this week but not always for the right reasons. Both major parties have had to drop candidates over inflammatory past comments or legal concerns—a reminder of the high-stakes pressure in a snap election cycle.
And what about the ground game? While polls give the Liberals an edge, Conservative rallies are pulling in bigger crowds. It’s raising questions about whether the Conservative vote is underrepresented in public polling data. At a minimum it demonstrates a highly energized base.
As we head into week three, the questions are sharper, the contrasts clearer, and the outcome far from certain.
What issue do you think will ultimately tip the scales in this campaign?